Newmont’s Earnings Power at $3,200+ Gold

Why it matters now: Newmont (NEM) posted a clean Q2 beat as record prices flowed through the P&L, with $3.0B adjusted EBITDA and $1.6B adjusted net income. Average realized price hit about $3,320/oz, showcasing the earnings torque even as the company integrates Newcrest assets.

Context: Producers are increasingly focused on balance sheet strength and disciplined capex after the last cycle. Newmont’s scale and portfolio depth help manage jurisdictional and operational risk while maximizing leverage to price.

Investor angle: At sustained $3,000+ gold, free cash flow inflects, supporting dividends and buybacks. Watch for updated guidance on synergy delivery from the Newcrest combination and any asset optimization moves.

What to watch: Subsequent quarters’ realized prices vs. spot, cost control (AISC trajectory), and progress on portfolio rationalization to enhance ROIC.

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