Why it matters now: Nutrien (NYSE: NTR; TSX: NTR) beat Q2 profit estimates and raised 2025 potash sales guidance to 13.9–14.5Mt, citing stronger North American demand heading into fall application season. Management flagged improved weather and robust corn acreage as tailwinds. Reuters+1

Tariff talk remains a swing factor for U.S. farmers, who rely on Canadian imports for ~80% of potash needs; prior analysis suggested full pass‑through of proposed tariffs could raise landed costs by >$100/ton, though policy has evolved since initial headlines. Mosaic’s Q2 showed improving potash segment sales and expanded cost‑reduction efforts. ReutersQ4 CDNAgroPages

Company/asset detail: Nutrien’s retail footprint helps capture downstream margin while stabilizing through cycles. Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) reported $411M in Q2 net income and expanded its cost‑cut plan to $250M, with potash segment sales rising year/year. Q4 CDN+1

Investor angle: Into 2026, constrained greenfield supply and normalizing planting support a balanced market. Watch Saskatchewan‑based producers’ commentary on pricing and volumes; tariff changes could shift trade flows and farmer economics.

What to watch: Fall application pace, Brazil import cadence, and any U.S. tariff adjustments impacting cross‑border fertilizer flows. Reuters+1